According to a report by the French Afrik Information Network on June 2, based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the wheat harvest season in North Africa is expected to experience significant growth in the 2026-27 period. The combined production of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia is projected to reach 12.9 million tons, marking a substantial increase of 61% year-over-year and approximately 58% above the average level over the past five years. Algeria is likely to set a new record, while Morocco is poised for a strong recovery following the drought experienced in 2025-26.

The current increase in production can largely be attributed to the significant improvement in weather conditions. During the harvest season, there was ample rainfall, and the soil moisture levels were favorable, greatly enhancing the growing conditions for crops. The average regional yield is projected to reach 2.43 tons per hectare, representing a 38% year-over-year increase. Approximately 5.3 million hectares were harvested, an increase of 17% over the previous year, collectively driving a substantial rise in total production.

When examined by country, Morocco’s recovery stands out the most. The country’s wheat production is projected to reach 7.5 million tons, marking a 114% year-over-year increase and a significant rebound. The average yield is expected to be 2.68 tons per hectare, and the harvested area is estimated to be around 2.8 million hectares. Algeria’s production is projected to reach 4.1 million tons, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, driven by both an increase in yield and an expansion in planted area (approximately 2 million hectares). In Tunisia, wheat production primarily consists of hard wheat, which has maintained a steady and increasing trend under relatively favorable climatic conditions over the past three years.

The increase in production is expected to have a direct impact on the import structures of the three countries. As major global wheat importers, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have long relied on the international market to bridge supply and demand gaps. Should the harvest materialize, it will, to some extent, reduce the scale of imports and alleviate foreign exchange pressures. Additionally, Algeria’s policy objective of promoting food self-sufficiency is also expected to make progress on a temporary basis.

The report also notes that food production in the region remains highly dependent on a rain-fed agricultural system, lacking stable irrigation support. As climate change exacerbates the uncertainty of rainfall and increases the frequency of droughts, there remains a significant risk of volatility in this round of “harvest expectations,” and the structural vulnerabilities to food security in North Africa have not been fundamentally addressed.