In the first four months of 2026, Vietnam's rice export growth slowed down to just over 3.3 million tons, and the export value was about 1.57 billion US dollars. Compared with the same period of 2025, Vietnam's rice export growth slowed down.

However, since the second quarter of 2026, as rice import demand recovers, and concerns about a possible reduction in global supply are increasing, the Vietnamese rice industry is opening up opportunities to keep up with the market and regain growth momentum.

According to the Vietnam Food Association, global rice supply is at risk of contracting as several food-producing countries are affected by climate change, rising production input costs and geopolitical instability.In Asia, the Philippines is under intense pressure from extreme heat and El Niño, and many rice-producing areas are at high risk of drought and land decay.

At the same time, conflict in the Middle East and the risk of transport disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant increases in fuel and fertilizer prices. Many farmers in Viet Nam, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have reduced fertilizer use or reduced planting area because profits are difficult to cover costs, thus affecting market rice supply.

Many countries are increasing their reserves of rice to ensure their food security amid fears of a possible decline in global supply, which further contributes to a continued contraction in rice circulation on international markets in 2026-2027.

In the face of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, the secretary general of the Vietnamese Rice Industry Association, Le Chong Song, said. Vietnam needs to continue to adhere to the "Jiulong River Delta 1 million hectares of low-emission high-quality rice cultivation of professional sustainable development program," in order to reduce the chemical agricultural inputs and seeds, irrigation water and other inputs, so as to reduce production costs.

In addition to the "1 million hectares" project, low-emission ecological rice-growing areas and specialty rice-growing areas could be developed according to different ecological conditions, such as the Jiulong River Delta organic shrimp and rice rotation model.

In response to the impact of El Niño, areas need to immediately inspect and repair waterworks, develop agricultural time adjustment plans, and implement crop restructuring for inefficient paddy fields or rice farms.At the same time, relevant policies should be put in place to help farmers improve their ability to cope with price volatility and climate change.

Accordingly, farmers will be able to obtain preferential loans for rice production and, in accordance with the law, promote land concentration, while receiving loan support to develop complementary production services such as rice drying, agricultural mechanization and agricultural services in cooperatives and surrounding areas.

In the area of exports, Du Henan, President of the Viet Nam Food Association, believes that obstacles to export markets and logistics need to be continued to be removed, especially in key markets such as China and the Philippines. At present, China still manages rice imports through a quota system and a list of authorized export enterprises; In the Philippines, it is regulated through a licensing mechanism and a rice import quota policy.

The Association therefore recommends that the Government and relevant departments strengthen communication and coordination with importing countries to create more convenient conditions for rice trade. At the same time, support companies to further expand into potential markets such as Africa and avoid over-reliance on a few large markets.

Mr. Du Henan stressed:“In fact, whenever news emerges that the Philippines is reducing its rice imports, many companies will immediately sell in large quantities to preserve market share and clear inventory. When a large amount of supply is concentrated on the market for a short period of time, the price of rice will fall rapidly and sharply. In the end, exporters face difficulties and farmers suffer losses.”

In addition to market bottlenecks, rising logistics costs, shortages of empty containers, cuts in shipping routes and fluctuating transport surcharges are also putting greater pressure on rice export activities. As a result, many companies have recommended that authorities strengthen communication and coordination with shipping companies to stabilize transportation movements, reduce route cuts, control various additional costs and support companies in obtaining empty containers during peak periods.

At the same time, there is a need to continue to increase investment and upgrading of logistics infrastructure, especially in the Kowloon River Delta. Develop storage systems, water transport and transit capacity to better serve the rice industry, reduce costs and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice in the international market.