2023-2025 China's cassava starch import data panorama, three years of this long and the market pattern of drastic changes.

Three-year total versus average price (trend of volume increase and price decrease)

2023 3.3152 million tons -23.1%(reduced) 18.0 ($100 million) $542/ton total fall, high run

2024 3.8297 million tons +15.5%(incremental) 19.2 (US $100 million) US $502/ton moderate recovery, Vietnam share rising rapidly

in 2025, 5.0738 million tons +32.5% (surge) 18.75 (US $100 million) 370 (US $/ton) volume surged, prices plummeted, oversupply

source country share depth evolution (Vietnam overtake, Laos rise)

1. Vietnam (the first country of origin)

2023: 1.0418 million tons, or 31.42 percent
2024: 1.5643 million tons, accounting for 40.84 (YoY +50.15)
2025: 2.5645 million tons, accounting for 50.54 (absolute leader)
insight: With the ultimate cost-effective and Sino-Vietnamese railway logistics, 2025 officially won half of the country, completely dominate the pricing power.

2. Thailand (traditional strong supplier)

2023: 1.9189 million tons, or 57.88 percent
2024: 1.8157 million tons, accounting for 47.40 (share decline)
2025: 1.7189 million tons, accounting for 33.88 per cent (total volume continues to decline)
insight: Although the total amount of decline, but with a stable high-quality to hold food, medicine and other high-end track, and Vietnamese powder to form a "high and low match" complementary.

3. Laos (land access bonus)

2023: 217300 tons, or 6.55 percent
2024: 393000 tons, accounting for 10.26%
2025: 682700 tons, accounting for 13.46 per cent (steady increase)
insight: The timeliness and cost advantages brought by the China-Laos Railway make it a stable source of supply in the southwest.

4. Others (Cambodia/Indonesia)

in 2025, Cambodia imported 90800 tons, accounting for only 1.79 per cent; Indonesia was negligible and had little overall impact.

Core Conclusions and Business Implications

1. Pattern setting: In three years, the complete switch from "Thailand is stronger and weaker" to "Vietnam is mainly and Thailand is auxiliary. The price-performance ratio of Vietnamese powder in 2025 has become the absolute baton of the market.
2. Price dividend: The average import price fell to $370/ton in 2025 (the lowest level in the last five years), which is an excellent cost control window for companies with stocking needs.
Application differentiation: Vietnamese powder is suitable for general-purpose, cost-sensitive industrial and food applications; Thai powder is still the first choice for high-end and stable demand.

2026 Cassava Starch Import Core Forecast

total: Imports remain high, with year-on-year growth slowing to 5%-15%, with a full-year forecast of 530-5.8 million tons (about 5.07 million tons in 2025).
Price: Supported by the reduction and cost of raw materials in Southeast Asia, the annual average price may rise to 450-500 USD/tonne (only 370 USD/tonne in 2025).
Pattern: Vietnam's share is steadily rising, Thailand's high-end supply is complementary, Laos relies on the China-Laos railway steady growth.

Key forecast basis

1. Base effect and inventory digestion: imports increased by 32.5 year-on-year in 2025, high base superimposed on high port inventory, it is difficult to maintain high growth in 2026.
2. Supply-side contraction: Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, the main production areas of raw materials production, starch operating rate is limited, export elasticity decreased.
3. Demand toughness: food, feed, biodegradable materials, etc. just need to support demand, but macro and downstream to the library rhythm or suppress elasticity.
4. Logistics and policy: China-Vietnam, China-Laos land road smooth, tariffs stable, import channels stable.

Source Country Forecast

vietnam: the largest source country, with a share of 55%-60%, covering general needs with extreme cost performance.
Thailand: 25%-30%, stable high-end market (food, medicine).
Laos: 12%-15% share, China-Laos railway brings timeliness and cost advantages.
Others: Cambodia, Indonesia, etc. have a smaller share, mainly to supplement.