The US government has agreed with Russia to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea, according to a White House statement released earlier this week.

Seen as a potential step toward peace, the agreement of a Black Sea ceasefire followed presidential-level discussions between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The White House says it facilitated bilateral technical-level talks with a Russian delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March 23 and 25.

Exporting key food supplies

Before the war, Ukraine was a leading grain exporter, and all of Ukraine’s wheat, corn, and sunflower oil were exported through its Black Sea ports.

Over the past several years, the Black Sea grain deal has experienced many ups and downs, with uncertainty hanging over its renewal on several occasions.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative — also known as the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports — was originally agreed upon by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

The war quickly halted maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, which had previously been a leading exporter via the Black Sea.

World food prices jumped as Russia suspended its grain exports, leading to global shortages and raising major concerns over vital food supplies to low-income countries, such as some African nations. 

The key question now is, ”Will the Black Sea be reinstated as a safe corridor for food supplies?” 

The White House is adamant that this will be the case, but other commentators, including Ukrainian delegates, do not trust this will be the outcome. 

The statement reads, “The United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.”

“The US and Russia agreed to develop measures for implementing President Trump’s and President Putin’s agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine.” 

Black Sea ceasefire comes with caveats 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the Black Sea maritime security agreement will help restore Russia’s agricultural exports and help the country make a profit. It would also stabilize grain and fertilizer markets while bolstering food security. 

But Russia insists that further trade sanctions, including those impacting food producers and exporters and the banks involved in trade in food and fertilizers, must be lifted before this deal comes into effect.

In a press conference, President Trump confirmed his administration is reviewing all of Russia’s trade demands, while Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged caution. 

Could this deal lead to a wider ceasefire?

It remains to be seen whether this will be a temporary truce that will firm up food supplies and ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea or, moreover, an important step toward real peace. 

The Black Sea ceasefire deal is still considered to be fractious and complicated despite Tuesday’s White House announcement. 

In response to the White House statement, President Zelensky has said Russia is lying about the terms of the agreement, accusing Russia of brokering deals in the past only to break them quickly. 

Since the White House statement’s release on Tuesday, Ukraine has reported an attack on the port city of Mykolaiv, illustrating President Zelensky’s mistrust of Putin. Meanwhile, Moscow claimed it shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea.

However, Zelensky says this deal represents “the right steps” toward peace. Other commentators believe it could lead to a wider ceasefire and the eventual end to the war.