Economic shifts, political changes, and supply challenges will shape the global animal protein market in 2025, with seafood outpacing poultry as the fastest-growing source of protein worldwide, according to a Rabobank report. While poultry supplies will also grow, those for pork will remain steady, and beef volumes will “contract.”

Meanwhile, alt-proteins are struggling, with plant-based proteins finding niche markets amid consumers looking for healthier, less-processed options. Cultivated meat is still in the early stages, facing cost and regulatory challenges. Meanwhile, fermentation innovations are gaining ground but facing limited mass adoption.

Gorjan Nikolik, senior global specialist Seafood at RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, tells Food Ingredients First that various factors drive consumption of seafood and animal proteins, such as income, better global logistics, and, in some cases, supply.

“But other factors, such as the average education level and the aging population, both of which indicate health priorities, are an additional driver unique to seafood. Also, migration to urban and coastal areas (common in Asia) are additional drivers for seafood consumption.”

“This has to do both with seafood availability and local cuisines at the coast which are traditionally higher in seafood.”

Growth of seafood

Seafood is a key driver of global protein supply growth, driven by aquaculture (farmed seafood) and wild catch, according to RaboResearch’s Global animal protein outlook 2025. The categories are projected to grow by 2.3% year over year (YOY) in 2025, recovering from a marginal 0.3% decline in 2024.

“Aquaculture has a slightly higher growth rate than poultry as a few key species such as tilapia are young industries and growing rapidly. Wild catch has no long-term growth, but there is volatility due to the El Niño – La Niña cycle. 2025 is a year with higher supply,” says Nikolik.

The report highlights that the return of La Niña in late 2024 is expected to positively influence seafood production, particularly in the fish meal sector. It has increased Peru’s anchovy fishing quota, rising by 49% compared to 2023.

Meanwhile, the wild-catch fishing sector could also benefit from La Niña as it typically brings cooler ocean temperatures that improve fish stocks.

Salmon production is also set to increase by 3.5% YOY in 2025, supported by better environmental conditions. In Asia, shrimp production is projected to grow at 2% YOY, supported by lower feed costs and improved demand from the US and EU.

Poultry and beef trends

The report highlights a resilient demand for beef despite high prices, especially in North America. Improvements in food safety and beef quality are driving demand for the category.

However, it says declining cattle inventories will reduce beef consumption in the US and Canada, while Mexico is expected to maintain per capita supply growth. In Europe, poultry is the fastest-growing protein, with 3% to 3.5% consumption growth in 2025, driven by affordability.

.In Southeast Asia, the poultry industry is returning to historical growth levels, with the Philippines (+6%), Vietnam, and Malaysia (+4% to 5%) leading consumption growth. 

Pork production is expected to increase slightly in Vietnam but remains under pressure due to African Swine Fever in the Philippines.

Protein demand shifts

Seafood is also becoming a key protein choice for consumers due to its relative affordability over other animal proteins, and health and sustainability concerns.

Salmon remains a preferred premium protein, while shrimp demand is recovering in the US and EU after a period of oversupply. Retailers are adjusting prices to encourage sales.

In China, uncertainty in the economy is dampening demand, particularly for imported meats like shrimp.

Meanwhile, the alt-proteins industry is shifting from mainstream to a “solid niche.” Many companies have exited the market, while others have scaled-down operations or changed their business models.

There has also been a decline in new product launches, reflecting lowered consumer excitement. New alt-protein products now focus on cleaner labels, healthier ingredients (e.g., mushroom-based proteins), and added fiber content.

Minimally processed plant-based options, such as mycoproteins, are performing well. Smaller brands that avoid direct meat mimicry and offer unique plant-based alternatives are also gaining traction.

Impact of geopolitical factors

The report also points to geopolitical factors shaping global protein markets, including trade disruptions, policy shifts, and regional tensions.

“Seafood is the most traded of the proteins. Many key exporter regions such as Norway, Ecuador, Chile, Vietnam, India, or others export over 85% of the seafood they produce,” says Nikolik.

“Moreover, the US is the single largest importer region, with over 80% of its consumption coming from imports. Clearly, the geopolitical environment we are in is a considerable risk factor for the sector.”

Nearly 95% of container traffic is being rerouted around Africa due to security risks in the Red Sea, leading to longer transit times and higher costs, underscores the report. This impacts feed grain imports and global meat trade. An increase in tariffs and trade barriers is also expected to disrupt supply chains and raise costs.

Additionally, leadership changes in the US, Mexico, and the EU could lead to shifting trade policies, impacting agricultural exports and imports. Changes in import/export regulations could also alter global supply chains for beef, pork, poultry, and seafood.

Evolving regulations

Sustainability will stay a key focus in 2025 for the industry, but evolving regulations and environmental factors will introduce “new layers of complexity,” states the report.

It says companies will turn to AI, vaccines, and genetics to better manage animal diseases, improve productivity, and invest in metrics-tracking tools to tackle biodiversity reporting, which is becoming a key regulatory concern.

The report encourages companies to prepare for data collection as reporting guidelines evolve and to find synergies between climate, nature, and regulatory demands through emerging technologies.

Regarding concerns like overfishing, Nikolik says it is an issue that “requires science and regulation and in the case of fisheries in intentional waters cooperation among nations.”

“Aquaculture is a parallel seafood industry that has its own need for regulation and science. If science and regulation are present and well applied, both can be very sustainable industries, which is the case quite often already.”

However, he adds that the aquaculture is “still a young industry,” and there is considerable growth. Price cycles and new emerging technologies can improve its efficiency, but also add to the risk profile.  

“The key overarching opportunity as this is a sector that potentially has the lowest environmental impact of any protein in terms of GHG emissions, and is a very healthy lean protein that helps with cholesterol and cardiovascular health. So it is good for the planet and good for  people,” he concludes.