As cocoa prices continue to increase worldwide and crop production falls short compared to previous years, Wageningen University and Research (WUR) used a simulation model to predict the effects of climate change on future cocoa cultivation.

Their study aims to better understand how to overcome declining yields and future-proof cocoa crops as extreme weather events take their toll in some of the key African cocoa-growing regions.

WUR examined cocoa production in West and Central Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon), which accounts for more than 70% of global production. Changes in temperature and heavy rainfall are negatively impacting cocoa yields and, therefore, the overall supply of the crop. 

The study found a 50% reduction in cocoa production in the Côte d’Ivoire, while stating that Ghana is expected to see a moderate decline, and Nigeria and Cameroon “may experience an increase in arable land for cocoa.”

In contrast, other areas are experiencing benefits from the shifting climate.

Researchers used a computer model to simulate the impact of climate change by 2060 in the four countries. 

“Supply from these countries may decline. Especially in Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa exports constitute a major fraction of the export and foreign currency income. This will likely mean that this country may have to shift partly to other forms of income. My more serious worry is the plight of the growers who often largely depend on cocoa for cash income,” Dr. Niels P.R. Anten, professor of Crop and Weed Ecology at WUR, tells Food Ingredients First. 

“Generally, we see a strong decline in wet season rainfall and a slight increase in dry season rainfall, with overall annual precipitation tending to decline. In the drier part of the region (the northern parts of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana), this means wet seasons will become too dry.”

“In Cameroon and to a lesser extent Nigeria, on the other hand, wet seasons are actually too wet (soil waterlogging and too little sunshine) so a bit of drying there has no negative effect. The increase in dry season rainfall there tips the balance to positive. I do want to implore that rainfall predictions are notoriously uncertain, and though our six models were in good agreement, caution is needed.”

Computer modeling

Prof. Anten explains that the model used in the simulation is called a process-based crop growth model. It converts weather (light, temperature, CO2 levels, and precipitation levels) and soil conditions via processes like photosynthesis and biomass allocation in the plant to yields. There is no AI involved.

“To feed the model with climate data, we used six climate change models that bracketed the range in predictions from more modest to more severe warming and the full scale of rainfall predictions,” he explains. 

Some of the key takeaways of the WUR study include that the impact of climate change on cocoa yields in West/Central Africa is uncertain and that simulation models can help fill this knowledge gap. 

These models predict a rise in regional cocoa yields by 2060, and the expected yield rise is mostly due to the rise in CO2 and wetter dry seasons. There will also be regional differences: gains in the East (Cameroon) and losses in the West (Côte d’Ivoire).

Predicted changes in total area suitable for cocoa production in each country wher simulated water-limited potential yield is expected to change, with and without CO2 effects.

“Being a tree crop with an economic life span of about 30 years, a cocoa plant planted today will experience future climate change. Added to this is the fact that most growers are small-holder, relatively poor farmers. For their future and that of the main growing countries, it is important to have an idea of how cocoa’s suitability will change.”

Impact on chocolate and confectionery segments

Prof. Anten points out that rising costs and supply chain issues have already had an impact on the chocolate and confectionery segments in recent years. 

Consumers feel the impact of higher chocolate prices, while some manufacturers are responding by incorporating alternatives, such as cookie pieces, into chocolate bars to reduce cocoa use. 

“2023 was a very bad year in the Côte d’Ivoire, and cocoa prices skyrocketed from US$2,500 per metric ton to about US$11,000. The response of the industry varies. Those companies that depend on high-quality chocolate with a certain minimum percentage of cocoa have no other choice than to increase prices (or make a loss).”

“Other companies that are more in the low-quality chocolate/candy bar business can adapt at least to some extent by lowering the cocoa percentage or making the chocolate layer thinner around a candy bar. If you pay attention in the grocery store you are already seeing more things like cookies or other cheaper things being added to chocolate bars.” 

Adapting to change 

Although there is “no silver bullet,” several agroforestry strategies exist, such as using shade trees to mitigate the warming and air-drying effects of climate change, providing additional products, and diversifying farmers’ incomes. 

Developing heat- and drought-resistant cocoa varieties and providing training for farmers can also help maintain or boost production. 

“Another quite different strategy could be to intensify cocoa production, e.g., grow it under irrigation in areas that are somewhat drier and therefore have fewer diseases. Some of this is happening in Brazil. But this would entail that cocoa production would move more toward being produced on large plantations rather than on small farms,” adds Prof. Anten. 

“Cameroon is also one of the African countries still harboring a lot of tropical rainforest. We need to better pinpoint suitability in this country under the restriction of avoiding deforestation and possibly also avoiding competition with food crops.” 

“Our model assessed the direct climate effects on yield. What still needs to be determined still is how will diseases and pests respond to climate change? And, how will flowering and pollination respond? In other species, like cereal crops, we know that their flowers can become sterile under prolonged warming. Whether this also holds for cocoa is still unknown,” he concludes. 

New EU law to prevent deforestation

The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is introducing new import rules to combat global deforestation. Starting in September, the EUDR will prohibit imports of products, including cocoa, from areas deforested after 2021.

The research involved collaboration between WUR groups Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Plant Production Systems Group, and Forest Ecology & Forest Management Group, along with cocoa companies, international and national research institutions, NGOs, and local governments as part of the Norwegian government-funded CocoaSoils program.