Agricultural output has grown at roughly the same rate since the 1960s, a study of global food production has revealed. This counters widespread concerns about stagnant global crop yields in recent decades. 

“Utilizing a comprehensive caloric-based index of production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of global agricultural land and food output, this paper reveals that, on an aggregate level, global yield growth — a vital indicator of agricultural productivity — has not slowed over the past six decades,” say the study’s authors John Baffes, senior economist with the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group and Xiaoli Etienne, associate professor at the University of Idaho, US.

“This steady growth equates to an annual increase of approximately 33 kilograms of wheat per hectare, highlighting continued productivity gains worldwide.”

The experts created standardized measures for production and yield for 144 crops, covering 98% of agricultural land worldwide. These measures enable scientists and policymakers to compare agricultural yield across different geographies.

Sustainability and affordability concerns

The findings come as fears around global food security intensify, with the climate crisis disrupting global supplies and mounting inflationary pressures.

The global population is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, and agricultural production will play an increasingly crucial role in feeding people.

The study notes that while technology has made the development and use of better crop varieties possible in the past six decades, some studies have indicated that production growth has plateaued. This has raised additional concerns about food availability, especially in economically vulnerable regions such as low-and middle-income countries.

The researchers warn that despite reassuring findings from a global food supply perspective, food production will continue to face sustainability and affordability challenges due to climate change and income and population growth.